The mental health impact on communities is often protracted over time – in the context of COVID-19, this has been referred to as a ‘fourth wave’ comprising trauma, mental illness, post-traumatic stress, economic injury, burnout and more.9
One study found that five years after the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria, 22% of people in high-impact communities were still reporting symptoms of mental health disorders at approximately twice the rate evident in low-impact communities.10
Modelling suggests that Australia could see a 13.7% increase in suicide deaths over the next five years, due to high rates of unemployment and reduced community connectedness. The modelling also highlights the likelihood of increased mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentations and self-harm hospitalisations during that time period.11